Can the Cuban revolution survive?
Cuban socialism is in the midst of a storm. Trump's blockade of oil imports is choking the economy, prompting the Communist Party to speed up plans for energy self-sufficiency and market reforms. | AP

“We are not a threat to the United States,” Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel declared last week, but “a revolution that doesn’t know how to defend itself…is very unlikely to survive.”

The Cuban president, who is also First Secretary of the Communist Party, delivered a firm rebuttal to the Trump administration’s escalating war against his country in a sweeping dialogue with the Cuban and international media in Havana on Feb. 5. Díaz-Canel framed Cuba’s current struggle as one of “creative resistance” and socialist perseverance against imperial strangulation.

In response to heightened U.S. threat, the president confirmed the government is moving ahead with implementation of a defense preparedness plan under the concept of the “War of the Entire People.” He characterized the effort—which aims for energy self-sufficiency and launches a massive reform of the economy—as a defensive, legitimate measure enshrined in the constitution.

“It’s not saying that we have entered a state of war; it’s saying that we are preparing in case we need to enter a state of war at some point,” Díaz-Canel said.

Economic war

Economically, however, the people of Cuba probably already feel like the U.S. is waging war against them. The president’s press conference was held against the backdrop of a new Trump executive order that brands Cuba an “emergency threat” to U.S. security and imposes a total blockade on its fuel supplies.

The U.S. moved to cut off oil shipments to Cuba from Venezuela after its invasion of that country and the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro in early January. Trump now also threatens to sanction or impose tariffs on any nation that exports oil to Cuba. Mexico and a number of other countries have already halted shipments.

Miguel Díaz-Canel, president of Cuba and first secretary of the Communist Party, says the government is moving ahead with a defense preparedness plan called the ‘War of the Entire People.’ | Prensa Latina

Blackouts, which have long plagued Cuba’s strained electricity grid, have become more frequent and widespread in recent days, and they’re lasting longer. News reports out of Havana confirm that state-owned companies are switching to a four-day workweek, while schools and universities are trimming in-person instruction hours to save power usage. Public transit service has been reduced in many cities.

Several resorts and hotels along Cuba’s northern beaches are closing or consolidating guests, producing bad headlines overseas for a sector of the economy that has been a source of foreign currency for many years.

On Monday, the government announced that its airports are essentially out of jet fuel, prompting international airlines flying to Cuba to rely on backup arrangements for refueling in nearby third countries for at least the next month.

The rapid economic deterioration in Cuba is sparking comparisons to the “Special Period” depression it experienced in the 1990s after the destruction of the Soviet Union and raising questions internationally about whether its socialist revolution can survive.

Directly addressing what he termed the U.S. “theory of collapse,” Díaz-Canel rooted Cuba’s current difficulties in Washington’s nearly 65 year-long policy of aggression.

“All generations of Cubans…were born and have lived under the blockade,” he stated, linking the Trump administration’s recent actions to the 1960s Mallory Memorandum, which explicitly advocated denying money and supplies to Cuba to “bring about hunger, desperation, and overthrow of the government.”

Not alone

Díaz-Canel systematically dismantled Washington’s justifications for its blockade, outlined Cuba’s contingency plans, and reaffirmed what he called “unbreakable bonds of internationalist solidarity,” particularly between Cuba and Venezuela.

While acknowledging the current energy crisis facing Cuba stems directly from the U.S. “naval blockade” of Venezuela and Trump’s new tariff threats, he rejected any notion of dependency on Venezuela, instead describing a relationship of “cooperation and collaboration…based on principles of solidarity, integration, and complementarity.”

Despite the blockade, Díaz-Canel emphatically stated, “Cuba is not alone.” He listed widespread international support from governments, political parties, and movements worldwide, including China, Russia, the Non-Aligned Movement, and progressive voices within the United States itself.

“There are many people…willing to work with Cuba,” he said, acknowledging the “hard, creative, intelligent work” required to circumvent U.S. imperialism’s persecution.

The Communist Party USA issued a forceful condemnation of Trump’s executive order, calling it “cruel, illegal…escalation of the 65-year economic war against Cuba.”

The CPUSA statement branded U.S. claims of a “malign influence” as “imperialist hypocrisy” and warned that cutting off fuel is an act of collective punishment that “risks deepening already severe power outages, food scarcity, and loss of essential services.”

Reforming to survive

On Cuba’s domestic policy, Díaz-Canel detailed a two-pronged strategy: immediate defense and energy resilience combined with deep, necessary economic transformations of the domestic economy.

Central to the “War of the Entire People” defense preparations, according to the Cuban leader, is a radical push for energy sovereignty.

Minorkys Hoyos Ruiz lights coals to cook dinner during a scheduled blackout to ration energy in Santa Cruz del Norte, Cuba, Feb. 3, 2026. | Ramon Espinosa / AP

Díaz-Canel detailed significant progress and revealed that investments in solar farms had boosted renewable energy’s share of electricity generation from 3% to 10% in a single year. He announced the ongoing installation of thousands of solar panel systems for homes and vital centers, including hospitals and schools, and a drive to increase domestic crude oil production and refining.

“We have to learn to live using our energy sources,” he said. Part of Cuba’s response to the U.S. blockade is to accelerate the renewable energy transition and eventually break dependency on fossil fuels.

Beyond the immediate crisis, Díaz-Canel outlined a vision for “necessary transformations” in Cuba’s economic model. He emphasized decentralizing authority and granting real autonomy to state-owned enterprises and, crucially, to municipalities. The goal is to unleash local productive forces, create robust local production systems, and shift away from the import-centric model.

He offered public enterprises blunt advice to “export, seek foreign currency revenue, and purchase the necessary fuel, supplies, and raw materials” needed to carry out their business. They can no longer simply rely on the government providing them with raw materials and fuel from the central treasury, he warned.

Díaz-Canel declared that “decentralization of planning” is a priority and indicated that a move toward a more market-based set of production decisions and incentives is on the way. He called for a refinement of the economic management system and the establishment of a “proper balance between centralization and decentralization and between planning and market signals.

Residents walk past a closed, private clothing store in Havana. Small- and medium-sized enterprises were first allowed to open in 2021, but remarks from Cuban President Díaz-Canel suggest that the government intends for private enterprise to play a bigger role in the economy. | Ramon Espinosa / AP

Also being reviewed, he said, are “relations between state and non-state sectors” of the economy, suggesting that private enterprise may soon be playing an even greater role. That will include foreign private capital, ideally, as the president urged the Ministry of Foreign Trade to “take advantage of all the flexibility we have provided for foreign direct investment.”

Control of state-owned companies is to be further decentralized, with provincial and local governments given more leeway to manage the firms in their area. “We have to ensure that the municipalities develop,” he argued, “and if the municipalities develop, the provinces develop, and if the provinces develop, the country develops.”

That means companies should not always wait for detailed production decisions and orders to come down from Havana. Crucially, in the immediate future, this includes changing the approach to the basic food basket to prioritize locally produced goods and moving away from a reliance on food imported from other countries by the central government.

Echoing statements made by leaders in other socialist countries who’ve embarked on market and ownership reforms in the past, Díaz-Canel said that the transformations are not contrary to the goals of the revolution. “Autonomy does not break with unity in the construction of socialism, nor is it an act of indiscipline toward planning and the interests of the state,” he affirmed.

He emphasized that the government must, in every decision it implements or reform it pursues, “see who is left at a disadvantage.” To ensure that happens, he pinpointed the necessity of improving and strengthening democracy within the ruling Communist Party and of upholding mass participation and popular control of state institutions.

Throughout his remarks, Díaz-Canel returned to core principles of the Cuban revolution: unity, popular participation, and the central role of youth. He concluded by saying further details on policy changes and economic reform will be provided by other government leaders in the coming days.

While Cuba faces a historic challenge fueled by external aggression, its response will be one of sovereign innovation, socialist unity, and an unwavering commitment to its principles, Díaz-Canel said. The question in the coming period will be whether the reforms its government and people pursue will yield the results and self-sufficiency needed to survive U.S. imperialism’s latest attacks.

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CONTRIBUTOR

Cameron Harrison
Cameron Harrison

Cameron Harrison is a trade union activist and organizer for the CPUSA Labor Commission. He also works as a Labor Education Coordinator for the People Before Profits Education Fund.

C.J. Atkins
C.J. Atkins

C.J. Atkins is the managing editor at People's World. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from York University and has a research and teaching background in political economy.