Cold? Really, it’s warmer than ever

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Believe it or not, winters have been warming rapidly in the majority of the continental 48 states since 1970. And, take note Chicago and other Midwest readers: The coldest states are warming the fastest. So says a 2013 report by Climate Central.

In fact, says science writer Andrew Zimmerman, if the climate had not warmed so much during the past few decades, it's possible that the current freezer-like weather would be even colder in those areas. Yikes!

Meanwhile, there have been above-average temperatures across parts of the Arctic, Scandinavia, Europe and Asia this past week, Zimmerman reports. Last month, the northern Alaska coastline, above the Arctic Circle, had the warmest temperatures on record in at least 70 years. It's part of an overall trend of warming in the Arctic area.

But yes, brrrrr, every state in the continental U.S. has had sub-freezing temperatures this week. It's attributed to the behavior of the "polar vortex." The polar vortex (also known as a polar cyclone) is a large swirl of very cold air that sits over the polar regions year round. It intensifies in the winter and weakens in the summer. The jet stream from the Arctic polar vortex sometimes brings extremely cold weather southward into Europe, Asia and the U.S.

According AccuWeather.com, cold outbreaks like the one this week occur "on average once every 10 years. The last far-reaching, bitterly cold blasts occurred in the mid-1990s, during February of 1996 and January of 1994." AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said, "We were overdue for a large Arctic outbreak of this intensity."

This time the polar vortex has spread unusually far south into the U.S., giving us the record frigid conditions we've been experiencing.

Is global climate change a factor in this unusual intrusion of the polar vortex? Some scientists say yes; others say the jury is still out. Scientific studies have tied abnormally cold temperatures in the U.S. and Europe to warmer than usual conditions in the Arctic - they dub this the "Warm Arctic/Cold Continents Pattern."  This could be driven by the loss of polar sea ice which has been documented over the past few decades. That in turn is spurred by human-caused global warming. Research is ongoing.

"The research linking climate change impacts in the Arctic to more extreme jet stream patterns is still very new, and we need several more years of data and additional research before we can be confident that this is occurring," writes Weather Underground scientist Jeff Masters. "But if the new research is correct, the crazy winter weather we've been seeing since 2009 may be the new normal in a world with rapid warming occurring in the Arctic."

But one thing is sure, scientist agree: cold weather does not contradict the well-established fact that the Earth has been warming overall due to human activity, in particular the massive use of oil, coal and other fossil fuels. The consequences of this, scientists say, include more extreme weather of all kinds.

For a break from the cold, you might want to consider a trip Down Under. Australia has experienced record-breaking scorching hot weather this past year. It's been so hot that mapmakers have had to add a new color to temperature maps to signify the blistering heat there. Australia's winter, which is during our summer months, was "only" the third hottest on record. But its spring temperatures, starting in September, were the hottest ever. January 2014 is starting off with similar heat extremes. Walgett, in New South Wales, recorded 120 degrees Fahrenheit, the second hottest temperature ever measured in the state.

One of the reasons for Australia's record heat in 2013 was very high ocean surface temperatures, the third warmest on record according to preliminary data.

If you are not up for a trip to Australia, not to worry. The record cold in the U.S. will be ending this week, weather forecasters say. Temperatures are predicted to be up to 50 in places like New York and St. Louis.

Photo: A Chicago street scene this week. John Bachtell/PW

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  • The record cold in the U.S. will be ending this week, weather forecasters say.

    20 days later the wind chill in Michigan is 30 below zero. So much for "forecasters"

    Posted by Comrade келя ивановна , 01/28/2014 1:07pm (3 months ago)

  • Thanks to Susan Webb for this clarification on the meaning of global warming.
    This clarification is consistent with what Marc Brodine has been writing in these windows.
    The extremities are frightening reminders of the urgency of unity and struggle for a human world- one in which workers' health and well-being is prioritized-that we will either have a human world, which protects nature, or no world in which humans can sustain themselves or nature.
    Sydney and Walgett, Anchorage, Beijing, New York and St. Louis are one.

    Posted by E.E.W. Clay, 01/09/2014 10:28am (3 months ago)

  • Fine article. Thanks for front-paging it.

    From a recent article in the Guardian, putting this information in context:


    "... Despite the high profile cold wave that is now affecting a large
    portion of the United States, the average global land and ocean
    surface temperature in 2012 and 2013 was close to one degree
    Fahrenheit warmer than for the period from 1961-1990 and
    climatologists expect the rate of warming to accelerate with increased
    buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the earth’s
    atmosphere. The decade from 2000 to 2009 remains the warmest full
    decade since weather records began in 1850. Every year since 1986 has
    had above average global temperatures, with the fifteen warmest years
    on record all occurring in 1998 or later.

    'While the current cold spell will no doubt invigorate climate change
    skeptics, a global perspective reminds us that we are just two months
    removed from the warmest November on the planet in over a century of
    keeping weather records, and that 37 consecutive Novembers have
    recorded global surface temperatures above the 20th Century November
    average. In addition, through November the earth has had 345
    consecutive months with temperatures above the 20th Century average.'

    Thanks again for setting the right perspective.

    Posted by Dave Cunningham, 01/08/2014 4:38pm (3 months ago)

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