At 8 p.m. Tuesday, a deadline passed that the president of the United States had turned into a world-ending ultimatum. Trump had boasted on his Truth Social platform that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran didn’t meet his demands. He threatened to turn power plants to rubble, blow up bridges, and leave 93 million people in the dark.
Then, he blinked.
Just 90 minutes before his own cut-off point, Trump announced he had agreed to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks on the condition that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stock markets around the world surged. The Dow opened 1,300 points higher Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 2.6%, and the NASDAQ added 3.3%. International oil prices, meanwhile, plummeted—down 17% as of this writing.
Working people shouldn’t mistake a pause for peace, though, or a market bounce for their benefit. To understand where things are now, it helps to take note of how they ended up here.
Selling the war
According to reporting from the New York Times, Trump authorized the war against Iran based on “his own instincts” and an aggressive pitch from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His inner circle of advisors largely deferred, despite stark intelligence warnings that the war could be a strategic failure that would damage the world economy.
Netanyahu made a presentation on Feb. 11, arguing Iran was “ripe for regime change” and that a joint U.S.-Israeli war could bring it down within weeks. He predicted the country’s missile program would be quickly destroyed, the enriched uranium could be easily seized, retaliation kept minimal, and that the Iranian people would rise up, paving the way for the installation of a new government.
Trump’s response was immediate: “Sounds good to me.” Others were less convinced. CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly called the regime-change scenarios “farcical,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed Israel’s projections as “bullshit.”
Still, Netanyahu wasn’t the only influence. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Gulf leaders urged Trump not to stop short of further degrading Iran’s military. War Secretary Pete Hegseth—perhaps seeking his own moment in the spotlight—was gung-ho about launching an attack.
Trump also brought his own imperial logic. His willingness to take risks was reinforced by prior Middle East actions—destroying the Iran nuclear deal, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, ordering the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, and bombing Iran’s nuclear sites in 2025. Each time, he appeared to believe he had acted without serious consequence.
In the end, the war was Trump’s decision, even if Netanyahu made the sales pitch.
The consequences have been immense. At least 3,500 have been killed in Iran, another 1,400 in Lebanon by Israeli bombs, dozens of civilians in Israel, and 13 U.S. service members. The human toll is already staggering, and the economic fallout continues to unfold.
Iran’s closure of the Strait forced major oil producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain to collectively shut in an estimated 7.5 million barrels per day of crude production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration warns disruptions could rise to 9.1 million barrels this month.
The same agency projects gasoline prices could peak at $4.30 a gallon before easing and that Middle East oil output may not return to pre-war levels until late 2026, even assuming gradual reopening of the Strait.
This is far from the economic “Golden Age” Trump promised. Rising energy costs ripple outward, increasing transportation, heating, and production expenses. Inflation driven by oil functions as a tax on workers—those commuting to jobs, heating homes, or trying to keep small businesses afloat.
Buying the dip
Not everyone, however, is suffering. A lucky few have profited enormously.
As previously reported in People’s World, on March 22, nearly 6,200 oil futures contracts worth roughly $580 million were traded within a single minute—more than eight times normal volume—with no public news to explain it. Fifteen minutes later, Trump posted about “productive conversations” with Iran. The timing suggested some traders knew what Trump was going to say before he said it.
It happened again Tuesday before Trump’s deadline. Three newly created crypto wallets placed bets on the prediction platform Polymarket that the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire by April 7. At the time, odds of such an outcome were estimated between 2.9% and 10.3%—long-shot territory.
Together, the three wallets made $484,575 in profit. One placed its first bet just eight-and-a-half hours before Trump publicly confirmed the ceasefire. The people placing these bets will almost certainly avoid scrutiny. The well-connected insiders riding the president’s war diplomacy to windfall profits operate without fear because the watchdog agencies that should be probing their trades have been gutted by the Trump administration.
More broadly, the oil industry and defense contractors have benefited since the war began. While U.S. firms cannot directly access Iranian oil due to sanctions, the instability itself has driven profits. Elevated prices delivered windfalls to domestic energy producers, while arms manufacturers secured large orders to replenish depleted U.S. stockpiles.
Failed objectives
The deeper strategic picture continues to be missed by the cable news channels and most major media outlets, though. This war was not only—or even primarily—about Iran’s nuclear program or the welfare of the Iranian people.
The war on Iran, like the January invasion of Venezuela, was also aimed at China. Part of the calculation in Washington was that these two campaigns would disrupt China’s economy and alliances and position U.S. imperialism to put China in a long-term chokehold when it was all over.
Iran supplied 13.4% of China’s seaborne oil imports before the war, and 37.7% of China’s crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the few major global transit routes outside U.S. control.
Control over that chokepoint was the real prize. The war was less about Iranian democracy or nuclear development and more about dominating a strategic valve in the global energy system.
That objective has not been achieved.
China’s economic structure has softened the blow. Its state-directed development has prioritized electric vehicles and renewable energy for years. Its EV fleet is now roughly equal to that of the rest of the world combined, and its national grid continues shifting away from fossil fuel dependence. All these measures helped buffer China from the oil shocks that destabilized other economies.
Iran, meanwhile, demonstrated its own leverage. It showed it could shut down all shipping through the Strait, maintaining the power that U.S. war planners hoped to seize.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has declared the ceasefire a victory, stating that “nearly all objectives of the war have been achieved.” Tehran’s 10-point peace proposal—calling for sanctions relief, U.S. military withdrawal from the region, reparations, and recognition of its right to nuclear enrichment—remains far from Washington’s position, even if it frames ongoing negotiations.
Imperialism backed into a corner
So, what does this moment mean for U.S. imperialism?
Though heavy damage was inflicted on Iran’s military capabilities, Trump ran into a wall he didn’t expect. Iran delivered a significant blow to the perception of U.S. military and economic omnipotence, forcing a reassessment of Washington’s ability to impose outcomes unilaterally.
Trump, the Pentagon, and Fox News will spin the massive destruction of Iranian infrastructure as a victory. Outside the right-wing echo chamber, however, the rest of the world sees a different reality. The anticipated China chokehold never materialized, Iran’s theocratic government remains in power, the map of the Middle East still reflects the pre-war status quo, and many of U.S. imperialism’s traditional alliances—aside from Israel—are more strained than ever.
The administration’s failure to achieve its objectives could make the situation more dangerous, not less. A two-week ceasefire is not a settlement; it is a pause. The bombing could resume at any time. Meanwhile, the economic consequences of the war and oil disruptions continue to fall disproportionately on the working class—in Iran, in the U.S., and around the world.
Trump is already pushing deep domestic spending cuts to fund a $1.5 trillion Pentagon war budget. While insiders and war-driven industries profit, the broader population will bear the costs.
The people of Iran survived Trump’s deadline. The task now is ensuring the peace movement doesn’t let the world forget what was threatened—and why.
As with all news-analytical and op-ed articles published by People’s World, the views represented above are those of the author.
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